Stephen Bannister is Director and Chair of the Master of Science in International Affairs and Global Enterprise and an Associate Professor of Economics at University of Utah (yes that University of Utah). His interest is economic history, and analyses of energy technology transitions in society have produced some optimistic predictions for a de-carbonized future.
“The U.N. Secretary General António Guterres said ‘The era of global boiling has arrived,’ and the problem is so big,” says Bannister, “we should do everything feasible in order to completely eliminate carbon sources.”
Data and “energy source substitution elasticities” from the International Energy Agency have provided a prediction elements on the scale and timeframe of de-carbonizing emissions.
The Elasticity Index applied to solid state fusion generators
In his ICCF25 presentation On The Edge of a Revolution [watch on Youtube], Bannister uses a formula for an elasticity index developed empirically by the International Energy Agency IEA using their own data and modeling. The IEA elasticity index found that complete substitution of an old commodity source, after the infrastructure of the new commodity source is functioning, is 1.
The ratio models the demand for the old commodity X in the numerator, given a price differential Y for the new commodity in the denominator. Applying this formula to new solid state fusion power sources, with fossil-based carbon-sources in the numerator, allows an estimate of the scale for carbon-sourced demand.
How cheap can we possibly make LENR power generators? Jed Rothwell, a programmer, author and librarian archivist at lenr-canr.org [visit], has made several estimates of solid state energy cost differentials, the smallest starting at 10-20x cheaper than the next cheapest source. See his ICCF24 presentation Cold Fusion will Lower the Cost of Both Energy and Equipment here.
Plugging 20 as a percent into the elasticity formula, the formula gives a 2000% decrease in carbon demand.
A decade or two further down the road, Rothwell estimates the price differential to be anywhere from 200 – 600x cheaper for solid state fusion generators. This gives 60,000% decrease in demand for the carbon-source power.
At that point, we’re adding essentially zero carbon through fossil-based fuels.
Timeframe for zero-carbon emissions
Bannister then estimates the full-scale elimination of carbon from emissions could be well underway within 7-8 years of the release of a technology.
This forecast derives from his own research on the transition from wood to coal in Great Britain during the early industrial revolution. From about 1600 to the year 1750, when coal was about 2x cheaper than wood, it was approximately 150 years before wood demand collapsed, and coal became ubiquitous. Thereafter, the GDP from 1750 through 1900, one slice of a measure of living standards, drives up like a hockey puck.
Using that data, he uses this algorithm to estimate the time frame for carbon-demand to disappear due to a transition to a cheaper source.
Supposing a Rothwell 20x price differential, Bannister computes 150/19 ~ 7.9 years to transition to the new technology.
According to Bannister, the switch from “combustion energy to field energy” through the adoption of zero-carbon solid state fusion will halt carbon emissions, start the second great energy revolution, and increase living standards for everyone on the planet “10x what the industrial revolution did.” Moreover, we will have the energy density to restore our wildlands and environment. See Jed Rothwell’s plan How To Fix Global Warming with Cold Fusion presented at ICCF24 here.
With these predictions, Stephen Bannister stays in his lane of economics. However, if you’ve been out of your mind watching as our global leaders blindly allow the destruction of whole eco-systems and the extinction of species for short-term profit, and whose betrayal of our youth and generations to come has put a curse on every one us, this news from Bannister and Rothwell is like a hot shower after a hard day’s work: the dissolution of the old paradigm is at hand.
Clean Planet to mass produce Ikaros generators by 2030
Clean Planet, Inc has announced the development of their QHe Ikaros heat generator operating with nickel-copper nano-particles infused with hydrogen. [visit] Initial units will be industrial boilers precharged with hydrogen to operator for one year. Households can later expect to operate a 2kW heating unit on one-half cup of water a month. There is no radioactive materials and no carbon emissions. The low cost of production will allow manufacture and distribution as soon as safety and regulatory benchmarks are met.
Clean Planet, Inc.’s Masami Hayashi spoke enthusiastically for TEDxBoston [watch] about their plans. With support from industry, academia, and government, they are scheduling mass production of heat generators by 2030. If that’s the case, together with Jed Rothwell and Stephen Bannister’s work, we can expect zero-carbon emissions by the year 2038, but drastic reductions even before then with the adoption of metal-hydrogen energy technology.
Watch Stephen Bannister and Jed Rothwell discuss LENR Economics and Commercialization in the LENR-forum Cold Talk series here on Youtube.